Inconsistency is Our Consistency

The United States' 2-1 loss to Panama on Saturday brought about major uproar by fans and media wondering how a letdown like this could happen to the Americans in a meaningful tournament like the Gold Cup. One media member in particular grabbed my attention; Jen Chang, SI.com's Soccer Editor.

I don't know Jen at all, but I am quite familiar with his work dating back to his stint as Editor at ESPN Soccernet. Jen's work and observations are quality, and he brought up an interesting take that I wanted to explore. He tweeted:

JenChang88 Jen Chang 

U.S. loses to Panama. Said last summer, U.S. is capable of beating anyone but also capable of losing to anyone. No other team quite like it.

That's an interesting observation, but not entirely accurate. The U.S. is capable of letdowns, but it's not the only team in the world susceptible to this. I responded to Jen's tweet with "Greece?" and he acknowledged that I was correct. I decided to look into this further and I found something pretty obvious, and might be a tip of the hat to the FIFA rankings.

The top nine of the rankings are clearly the best teams in the world in some order. Rarely, do we see teams like Spain, Brazil, Argentina, Italy, Germany or the Netherlands upset. Those teams may turn in sluggish performances, but out-and-out upsets tend to be few and far between.

Now, once we get into double-digits on the list, it starts to become revealing. The United States is No. 22, and when you look at 10-40 you see it littered with teams holding major potential (Turkey, Japan) or failing to live up to expectations (France, Nigeria, Egypt). The Greeks check in at No. 13.

This is the group that can either turn in a major upset of a team in the top tier of the rankings or a letdown against a rival with seemingly lower stature, and the U.S. is a part of that. This is how sports works; the teams in the middle are good, but not great. Teams like the U.S., Belgium, Australia, Mexico and Chile have the potential to crack the top 10, but consistency is an issue.

Let's take No. 10 Croatia as our example. This year, Croatia has tied France away and beaten the Czech Republic 4-2 at home. Mixed in there is a 1-0 loss at Georgia; clearly a letdown.

In December, Turkey fell 1-0 at Azerbaijan, currently ranked 108th.

Less than two weeks ago, Switzerland held a two-goal, first-half lead on England at Wembley Stadium, and had to settle for a 2-2 draw. That same team played Malta to a scoreless tie in February. That's right; MALTA! The Maltese are ranked 161, one ahead of Bermuda and one back of Chinese Taipei.

Understandably, people were upset with the U.S. performance against Panama, but keeping perspective is important. We're capable of being beaten, but we're also capable of beating the best. Just like other teams occupying the same tier in world soccer.

This isn't likely to change any time soon, but the U.S. is making strides in scheduling games against the likes of Spain, Brazil and Argentina. That experience -- even in friendlies -- may prove valuable later on.

Let's face it; the U.S. wouldn't be in the situation it is now if it wasn't for facing Mexico on a regular basis. If the Americans didn't have that the neighbor to the south, it would be Australia circa 2000.

The bottom line is; any team can lose on any day. However, some have been accustomed to letdowns more than others, and the teams that are in the second tier are prime candidates. When they win, it's expected and if they beat a team in the top 10 then it's a minor upset and confirms the perceived potential. When those teams lose; it's a letdown and sometimes in major proportions since many of fans and media from that nation are expecting continued and infinite progress forward.

The U.S. should be fine facing Guadeloupe tonight in Kansas City, making advancement to the quarterfinals of the Gold Cup a certainty. A letdown is highly unlikely, and the defeat to Panama may serve as the wake-up call to get things moving forward again.